Centauri's Theories

Although the known size of our universe is limited to what we can observe (15 billion light years in any direction) I have a feeling that it is much larger than the observable and visible limits. There is nothing that says the universe cant be MUCH larger than what we can observe. Currently, it is believed that the Universe is about 30 billion light years across, this of course is going by the assumption of 15 billion light years in two opposite directions (from us).

Who is to say we are at the center? Humans used to think we were at the center of the Universe, and the stars and planet rotated around us. We then learned that we circled our star, and that our star is out 2/3 of the way out of the Galaxy on the second spiral arm. The concept that we are at the center of the Universe, is simply an extension of this old concept. What we can say is the width of the observable universe is 30 billion light-years.

The universe could actually be anywhere from double this size, to ten times that, or even 100 or a 1,000 times bigger. We may never know for sure, but given how far we can travel, it doesn't much matter, since we may never even get to our next closest galaxy (Andromeda 2 million light years away)

In addition to our known 3D universe and all that we see, there is the concept of other dimensions, and that of multi-verses (parallel or co-existing 3D universes). Carl Sagan had a wonderful explanation in his Cosmos series to explain the concept of the unseen 4^th dimension. According to some Quantum Physics theories, there may be an inifinite number of these other universes.

The last ten years have shown tremendous progress in this area, and we have basically proven that many star systems have planets (over 60% of those with single star systems). The detection methods only show very massive gas giants, but since our own system contains 4 of these, one would assume that these systems contain rocky worlds as well. So far, we have observed that the Universe is fairly consistent. What happens here, happens elsewhere, for the most part. Other stars are like ours, and now we see that planets circle single star systems, and as stars form, they tend to have planets as well. Binary systems are less consistent, and they are about half of all the stars we see.

We know by measuring the speed of objects orbiting an area in space, how much mass is involved. This tells us about white dwarfs, and neutron stars. It also helps us infer the existence of black holes. By calculating the mass needed for stars to rotate so quickly in the center of Galaxies, we know that there is a LOT of mass in a very small area. HOW small is still in debate. We really can only measure from the schwarzchild radius of a black hole (where light disappears also known as the Event Horizon), but this does NOT necessarily mean that the black hole is a singularity, it may be only a fraction of the schwarzchild radius. There is a BIG difference between a massive object with a diameter of 10 or even 100 miles, and a mathematical singularity.

Even with VERY pessimistic numbers, the results are astounding. We know that our own galaxy contains some 300 billion stars. About half of these are single star systems. Although exoplanets have been found to orbit binary systems a fourth of the time, rocky planets like ours may not.

Some stars are too large to live long enough to give time for life to rise (in addition to the intense radiation that a massive star puts out). Others are in dangerous parts of the galaxy (Star forming regions that create many massive stars, and some of those go supernova, not good for life at all!)

Lets assume only one in 10 stars are good candidates, that's 30 billion stars so far. How many can support life? Lets us say only 1 in 20 planets, out of a system with 10 planets, that is still 15 billion (every other star containing one planet that can support life). How many actually spawned life? Let us assume a VERY pessimistic number of 1%, that brings us now to 150 million. How many gave rise to intelligent life?

The problem here is stability long enough to support the times needed in evolutionary terms. We know that events have happened here to cause extinctions many times, although the role this plays in allowing higher life forms to develop is unknown.

Again let assume the worst at 1%, that is 1.5 million. The final question, of that, how many got beyond the technology and did NOT blow themselves up? Again, let us be VERY pessimistic and assume 1%, that is 150,000, in OUR galaxy! And there are millions or billions of Galaxies!

Now, spreading that out over our Galaxies size of 60,000 light years of total diameter, that means the closest one to us might be 300 light years (a rough guess, since I do not have a distribution formula handy). A formable distance, to be sure, since we have only 26 stars within 12 light years. These are at VERY pessimistic odds. Increasing ANY of the numbers brings this number of Advanced civilizations up substantially into the 100s or even 1,000s (increase the last 3 from 1% to 2% each and we get 30,000!!!)

Even the number of planets that can support life may be better than 1 in 20, we will know more as we explore our own solar system. There are just a lot of unknowns currently.

Lets look towards a more optimistic set of numbers:

Well start with the 30 billion stars having planetary systems. Let us assume 2 planets in each system of 10 can support life, that is 60 billion planets. Then lets say 1 in 3 of those start life. That is 20 billion. Of the ones that start life, let us say 10% achieve intelligent life, that is 2 billion. Of those, lets us assume that at LEAST one third make it past the technology to become space-faring civilizations. That is 667 million!!!

Lets try again with different odds, that being that simple life starts easy, but intelligent life starts hard:

Well start with the 30 billion stars having planetary systems. Let us assume 2 planets in each system of 10 can support life, that is 60 billion planets. Then lets say 1 in 3 of those start life. That is 20 billion. Of the ones that start life, let us say .01% achieve intelligent life, that is 2 million. Of those, lets us assume that at LEAST 1% make it past the technology (and natural disasters) to become space-faring civilizations. That is 20,000!!!

We know by spectral analysis, that the chemicals of Life (as we know it) are quite common, specifically, Hydrogen, Oxygen, Carbon, and Nitrogen. In Addition there exist large quantities of Silicon, Potassium, Calcium, and Iron. We would expect also, as the product of supernovae, the rest of the elements we know exist all over as well (heavy elements like Lead, Gold, Uranium etc.).

We know that life on our own planet lives from many extremes of hot, cold and even radiation. Pressure varies from a few PSI to thousands of PSI. Life exists 3,000 feet underwater near volcanic vents where no sunlight is, only sulfur and other compounds. We know that Life is highly successful on this planet in all extremes. We would hope that Life is wildly successful on other planets as well.

Given the odds, almost certainly no. Why havent we seen any aliens then? If there are so many advanced civilizations? To borrow from some social concepts (including Star Trek), is that any suffictently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Then too, there is the concept of the Prime Directive of non-interference of a developing culture. If I came here from another world, I would want to see the whole planet working together, and not warring and fighting amongst themselves. There is also the fear-factor of Mass Panic, as in Men in Black.

Maybe this will change as we develop as a planetary-wide social structure. Then again, maybe they will wait until we can reach beyond the bounds of our own solar system.

This is the toughest of all, and the one I put the MOST thought into. How are we EVER to cross the vast distances of space? Even AT the speed of light, Pluto (being 39.5 AU from the sun) is at best 5.2 light hours away. Our closest star is 4.3 light YEARS away. Even if we can build ships that approach 90% the speed of light, the closest stars to us are many, many years away.

If we cannot cross physical space in less than generations, what about making space "shorter". This concept can be accomplished by a few different methods, but all are essentially the same, that is, using the unseen 4^th dimension in one way or another. Words like Warp Drive, Wormholes, StarGate and Hyperspace are all a part of this. All of these concepts consist of getting around physical 3D space by using the 4^th dimension to travel in. If you assume our Universe is like a piece of paper (or the surface of a balloon), and that travelling along it, that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, then consider this:

What if that paper is not flat, but curved? Instead of being forced to travel along the surface of that paper, what if you could jump from the paper, through hyperspace and back onto the paper? (like travelling from one side of the Earth by going THROUGH the planet, not around it) Very great distances could indeed be traversed then, in a short period of time. These are things we may never solve, or which may not be possible.

Given the types of things I have thought about, there is no telling what is next. I said as early as 15 years old "Anything Man can conceive, Man can achieve". Man dreamed to fly for at least 1,000 years (the story of Icarus), and yet, we achieved it only recently. But then, look at what has happened in the 100 years since (it WILL be 100 years of powered flight in December of 2003). We have accomplished more technologically in the last 100 years than has been done in ALL of Human existence.

Given the FACT that mass extinctions happen on this Planet every 100 million years or so, and the last one was 65 million years or so, we NEED to have life elsewhere besides this one planet, just in case.

I see at first that we shall have space stations, BIG ones that spin slowly to produce artificial gravity, first in Earth orbit,then progressively farther and farther away. Even if the Earth below is hit and destroyed by an asteroid, those on the space station will survive, because the mass of the Earth itself will not change, and the space stations will stay in the same orbit, the same goes for a Moon Base.

We have a ways to go as far as colonizing any other planet in our own solar system, and creating a 2^nd Earth. There have been theories put forth to terra-form Mars, but this could take centuries.

What I see happening on THIS Planet, is the advancement of the Internet to degrees people may not have thought of. Things like a single common language (sooner than 50 years), and chip implants that allow us all to be interconnected (like being on-line all the time, and in a vastly different way). I see things happening socially that people dont expect BECAUSE of the global nature of the Net. I see maybe even collaborative thought in a way which isn't quite possible these days.

I see a great many possibilities, if only we dont destroy our only home and each other.